Understanding Afghanistan

Afghanistan is an impoverished nation with currently unharvestable natural resources. There are some estimates in the trillions of dollars with oil in the north, gold, iron ore, copper and lithium. Ongoing conflicts prevent exploration of these resources. Their largest cash crop is poppy. Like most US conflicts, we funded the opposition to fight against Russia in the late 1970’s. That opposition included Bin Laden and the mujahidin. When the Russians left in 1989, we left as well. Hook and Spanier' 'American Foreign Policy Since WWII'  define this moment as our ‘benign neglect’ when we walked away from a country with the warlords in different regions fighting for power and control over parts of Afghanistan and the opium trade. These conflicts continued until 1996 when the ultra-religious Taliban took control. They imposed the most conservative Sharia law which is a strict religious doctrine as well as the chosen tool of oppression and instigation of fear under their brutal leadership. Al Qaeda and Bin Laden took up residence in Afghanistan and shared a mutual hate for the US, although the Taliban was more locally focused and Al Qaeda was globally Western in their attention.

We invaded Afghanistan after 9/11 in our pursuit of retribution against Bin Laden, Al Qaeda and their Taliban hosts with Operation Anaconda. It has been suggested that we failed to provide the requested support needed to capture Bin Laden in the fight of Tora Bora because we were two weeks out from invading Iraq. Certainly getting Bin Laden would have diffused public desire to invade Iraq if it was perceived that we had gotten the man who engineered 9/11. Bush gave his ‘it’s not about one man’ speech  to signal the end of his pursuit of Bin Laden and said that we needed to pursue the larger war on terror with a new target on Iraq.

In Afghanistan we were readying to start the half attempt at ‘nation building’ under the Bonn Accords sponsored by the UN. In reality, we pushed many of our resources into the mess we were creating in Iraq while we put a corrupt government in power in Afghanistan. Karzai was our president of choice. Under their new election rules, women must comprise twenty five percent of legislator positions. Having been such an oppressed population, the Afghan women were unprepared for this role but were eager to learn.

What we did accomplish in Afghanistan was a reversal of policies imposed by the Taliban. Girls were put back in school. Unlike Iraqi women who went to school, earned college degrees with many wearing western clothes, Afghan women were extremely oppressed with no rights what so ever. Music not only is now allowed, they have their own type of Afghanistan Idol on TV. Although this may sound like progress, I remember an interview with the producer and he said he is regularly threatened and takes great security measures to stay alive.  

I believe the success of any society is centered on the role of women. When women do better, families and the communities they live in do better. The NYTimes reported that Afghanistan was listed among the top three most dangerous countries for women ranked by the Thompson Reuters Foundation. They have one of the highest maternal mortality rates in the world, little access to healthcare and education and economic opportunity are scarce. The Human Rights Watch paint a similar grim picture for women as armed or Taliban insurgents attack girls’ schools, women in leadership roles and local police arrest women who resist forced marriages. The UN News reports "Once again, reality confounds perception in this country," Mr. Ging said. "So many brave Afghans are fighting for human rights and women's rights; all they need is modest support from the international community." Most attacks occur in more rural communities where resistance to social change is high and protection is low, but insurgent infiltration into the more densely populated areas are felt as they propagate fear and intimidation through bombing or shootings.

Only fifty percent of the Afghan population now lives in areas now controlled by Afghan Security Forces. There are over 150,000 members on the Afghan National Police Force comprising Afghan Civil Police, Border Police, Uniform Police and Special Forces with women accounting for less than 1% of the total force because of cultural hurdles. There is significant integration of different sects, although in areas dominated by say the Pashtuns, there are largely Pashtun police because they tend to stay local.

There are only an estimated 100 or so suspected Al Qaeda insurgents that remain in Afghanistan which has been reported in mainstream media. The most recent assessment of the government of Afghanistan by the Department of Defense in April 2012 is “The Afghan Government is gradually developing the capacity to provide stable, effective, and responsive governance to the Afghan population. However, the government’s long-term sustainability is jeopardized by multiple factors, including widespread corruption, dependence on international aid and mentoring support, and an imbalance of power that favors the executive branch over the legislative and judicial branches. Limited human capacity with appropriate formal training or civilian education within the civil service sector also impedes the development of stable and sustainable government across Afghanistan.”

Afghanistan was in the dark ages when we invaded their country. The Taliban culture was extremely oppressive in a society that was impoverished and largely ruled by regional warlords. We occupied the country while doing little to assist establishing a new government and institutions because our focus and resources were directed towards Iraq. If we could reflect on our own country's struggles with human rights and the fight against cultural barriers to change, we can understand that it takes decades and generations to make those changes. It has only been a single decade of trying to transform Afghanistan and bring it into the current century. The majority of Afghans support these changes but their lives are threatened for embracing them by the insurgents and locals who resist it. I believe the defense report made clear the impediments working against potential long term success. I believe there will be a civil war again due to the culture that remains entrenched especially in those communities not under control of the Afghan Security Forces. The pervasive corruption can undermine and delegitimize the current Afghan government. Support for it will be critical as their strength will certainly be tested. It is not about a cut and run policy in Afghanistan. We have been there for over ten years. No matter how much money we spend or what we do to try to nation build, are mission there cannot be achieved. It's time to come home.

 

Afghanistan: A Human Rights Tragedy. 2012, Nov 20. UN News. Retrieved from http://www.rawa.org/temp/runews/2012/11/30/afghanistan-a-human-rights-tragedy-2.html#ixzz2Ef0wuztq  Nov9, 2012

Bennhold, Katrin. 2011, June 15. Afghan Women Most Imperiled, Report Finds. New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/world/europe/15iht-women15.html?_r=0   Nov 9,2012

Human Rights in Afghanistan. 2012 Nov.  Human Rights Watch. Retrieved from http://www.hrw.org/asia/afghanistan   Nov 9,2012

Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan. 2012, April. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from http://www.cfr.org/afghanistan/report-progress-toward-security-stability-afghanistan-april-2012/p28138 Nov 9, 2012

United States Plan for Sustaining the Afghan National Security Forces. 2012, April. Department of Defense. Retrieved from www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/Report_Final_SecDef_04_27_12.pdf   Nov 9.2012

Iraq: Our Failed American Foreign Policy

 

After 10 years of occupation and 'nation building', I believe we left Iraq largely in a mess.  It is necessary to address both Iraq and the northern Kurds when discussing Iraq as a whole. The Kurds continue to embrace their decade’s long drive for independence. The fact that they sit on the bulk of Iraqi oil does not enhance the likelihood that Iraq will let this happen. It is necessary to give historical perspective of the Kurds to offer insight to the conflicts.

The Kurds are the oldest ethnic population with a unique culture despite their fall to various ruling powers. They have always struggled for independence but were caught in the crossfire of superpower struggles and the US was complicit in supporting the destruction of the Kurdish Democratic Party post WWII. The Kurds are the causality always caught in the fighting between larger powers which has only strengthened and kept alive their sentiments about independence.  Barzani of the 1970’s aspired to be the “51st state of the USA”. No one, including the US, wanted the Kurds to be independent of Iraq because they viewed the ‘semi-autonomous’ status of the Kurds as a means to keep Iraq a weaker state. The US true to historical form under Kissenger/Nixon, abandoned the Kurds when the Iraqis came down hard on them. We also refused to admit any Kurds for political asylum in the 1970’s.  

Marriana Charountaki , author of ‘The Kurds and US Foreign Policy’ describes in her well researched scholastic book five different phases of  US foreign policy towards the Kurds. The book critic, Mohammed Shareef of Durham University is more aligned with my opinion that the changes US foreign policy related to the Kurds were a direct response to our changing strategies rather than Charountaki’s assumptions that the Kurds shaped American foreign policy. It is only a difference of cause and effect. Seems this book would be a fascinating read.

The Kurds, after being mass murdered by chemical WMD, were long protected from Saddam under the no fly zone by the USA under Operation Provide Comfort in 1992. They had developed a significant level of autonomy from the Iraqi government by establishing their own defense and government institutions. Although initially wrought with infighting, they grew strong and independent. They were also largely unaffected by the US invasion because they were allied with us. They did not suffer the kinds of infrastructure destruction that places like Bagdad did. It is difficult if not impossible to scratch back the independence that the Kurds enjoyed under the protection of the US no fly zone. They advanced independent institutions and a military that presents a formidable opposition to the Iraqi military.

The Kurds live on top of the Iraqi oil reserves and if they were to achieve independence, Iraq would lose its largest income source. The Kurds could see themselves as another Quatar…small but rich. Kurdish President Barzani (interesting that there was a Barzani leader back in the 70’s…any relation?) is in conflict with Iraq because of his independent oil deals that conflict with Iraqi laws. It has been a multigenerational goal of the Kurds for independence from Iraq and their time of security and independence from Iraq has only emboldened and strengthened this aspiration. There is a large Kurdish population within the Turkish borders and Turkey views Kurdish independence as a potential threat. We have alliances with Turkey and I would lean toward us not supporting any attempt for the Kurds to establish their independence. It would be seen as a threat to Turkish borders and I believe Iran would feel the same. 

In Iraq, support for the USA will put your life at risk. I would suggest that there is little ability for US influence in Iraqi stability or survival of its fragile democracy. We are unwelcome by its leadership. Our failed policies there are the root cause of negative Iraqi sentiment towards the US within the Iraqi government. We invaded their country based on false reasons and lacked any post invasion plan which allowed for wide spread chaos and dismantling of government institutions. When we tried to clean up the mess we made, it had become an impossible mission. Bush’s statement of ‘mission accomplished’ and its photo op was premature and arrogant which was characteristic of his presidency and his American foreign policy.

Sectarian power struggles between the Shiite and Sunni is so evident that Shiite President al-Maliki sent out an arrest warrant for Sunni Vice President al-Hashimi with two death sentences to be delivered if he leaves the care and protection of the Turks where he is in exile. Ethnic warring continues between Kurds and the Arabs with no resolution in sight. Maliki has been slowly empowering his office on a slow walk to totalitarianism or dictatorship.

The USA lacked a post invasion plan and dismantled the Iraqi military and disenfranchised what should have been developed into a pillar of stability for the country. Power shifted from the minority Sunni to the majority Shiite as sectarian divisions were reignited. There were neighborhoods where Sunni were intermarrying with Shiite, but that sort of integration is now impossible. The civil war between them had begun. Iraq had no Al Qaeda before we invaded, but they are entrenched there now. Iraqi leadership has been engaged in ethnic cleansing as millions have fled the country.

As the world’s economy slows and limps along, so does the flow of foreign investments into Iraq for infrastructure rebuilding. It is a good thing for Iraq that their oil production and Iranian sanctions have led to an offset of funding to continue progress in investments in such key areas as electricity, transportation and provision of potable water. The predictors for Iraqi economic growth are encouraging as they dig themselves out from under the political disorder we contributed to. I do not see democracy as we know it flourishing given the ethnic and sectarian divisions and resulting conflicts. I expect the Iraqi relationship with Iran to become stressed in the future as Iran will seek to have greater influence and Iraq will start to fight against it. Perhaps a loose alliance against the US will be the end outcome since both their leaderships, not necessarily their people, have a well earned distrust and dislike of the US and our foriegn policies.

 Sources:

Brief History of Kurdistan. Retrieved from   https://www.mtholyoke.edu/~jlshupe/history.html  Nov 9, 2012.

Kamber, Micheal. 2012, Dec. 7. Iraq. New York Times. Retrieved from http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iraq/index.html

Opportunities for Infrastructure Financing in Iraq. 2010, April.  MENA-OECD Investment Programme. Retrieved from http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&sqi=2&ved=0CDUQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oecd.org%2Fcountries%2Firaq%2F45172287.pdf&ei=s7zEUJaSOueW0QGUuYCgCw&usg=AFQjCNESQiXKpflWPi-UREywCGfKUYTs8A&sig2=mJLTEK85cnP3fKoSCn3lTw

Shareef, Mohammed. 2011.The Kurds and US Foreign Policy: International Relations in the Middle East since 1945. Insight Turkey. Retrieved from http://www.insightturkey.com/the-kurds-and-us-foreign-policy-international-relations-in-the-middle-east-since-1945/book-reviews/70  Nov 9,2012.